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TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax 3-3 Score & Prediction Review
Eerste Divisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Jong Ajax drew despite more chances
TOP Oss3–3
Jong AjaxOn these chances TOP Oss would usually take 0.8 points and Jong Ajax 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: TOP Oss.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax stats: how the match was played
Eerste Divisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
TOP Oss
Jong Ajax
6
Shots on target
8
4
Big chances
4
4
Corners
3
3
Yellow cards
1
45%
Possession
55%
TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eerste Divisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
TOP Oss to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,461 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,163 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 942 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: TOP Oss ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
TOP Oss 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Jong Ajax 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
TOP Oss3
Jong Ajax3Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
TOP Oss3Jong Ajax3Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 15% | 85% | 34% | 66% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 46% | 54% |
| 33% | 67% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 29% | 86% | 14% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
15%
2-2
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-1
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
1-0
6.8%
3-1
5.8%
2-0
5.8%
0-1
4.9%
3-2
4.3%
3-0
4.0%
0-0
3.8%
0-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax — Recent Form
TOP Oss have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table. Jong Ajax have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.
Last 5 matches
TOP OssJong AjaxOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
TOP OssJong AjaxBoth Teams to Score
TOP OssJong AjaxOver/Under 2.5 Goals
TOP OssJong AjaxOver/Under 3.5 Goals
TOP OssJong AjaxFirst Half Result
TOP OssJong AjaxCorrect Score
TOP OssJong Ajax