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8/10Heracles Almelo scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 48%).
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NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eerste Divisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Unlucky
NAC Breda are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: NAC Breda 40% to winHeracles Almelo 38%
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo score prediction
Eerste Divisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.6 goals expected
3.6 goals in total: more goals than a typical Eerste Divisie game (average 3.3).
goals expected
NAC Breda1.7Heracles Almelo1.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eerste Divisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
NAC Breda to win
Our model 49%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 404 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 65.3%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 1,156 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 936 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
NAC Breda ahead at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 33%
Our track record
In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
NAC Breda Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
NAC Breda 2+ goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,464 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Heracles Almelo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Heracles Almelo 0–1 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
NAC Breda–
Heracles Almelo–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
NAC Breda–Heracles Almelo–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
Full Time
149%
X22%
228%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 15% | 85% | 34% | 66% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 46% | 54% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 45% | 55% |
| 33% | 67% | 62% | 38% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 29% | 88% | 12% |
| 84% | 16% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
143%
X34%
222%
1st Score
162%
X3%
234%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
16%
2-2
14%
X-X
11%
X-2
8%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
7.3%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.8%
3-2
4.8%
3-0
3.9%
0-0
3.4%
1-3
3.4%
0-2
3.3%
2-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo: the stats that stand out
Eerste Divisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Heracles Almelo: fast starters and banker as favourites
8/10Banker as favourites
8/10Heracles Almelo won 8 of 10 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo: attack vs defence
Eerste Divisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eerste Divisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- NAC Breda: good attack, good defence (2.06 xG, 1.07 xGA a game)
- Heracles Almelo: good attack, good defence (2.73 xG, 0.95 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo form and luck check
Eerste Divisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eerste Divisie gamesNAC Breda are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- NAC BredaBookmakers: 40% to win today.Wasteful · −3 goals−5.4
- Heracles AlmeloBookmakers: 38% to win today.−1.5
Last 5 matches
NAC BredaW
W
D
W
W
Heracles AlmeloW
W
D
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: NAC Breda 2nd of 20 · Heracles Almelo 1st of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eerste Divisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eerste Divisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredNAC Breda and Heracles Almelo games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Eerste Divisie average (65%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 65%
NAC Breda7 of 10
Heracles Almelo8 of 10
BTTSleague 64%
NAC Breda7 of 10
Heracles Almelo6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 372 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo corners, cards and goal times
Eerste Divisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameNAC Breda score early
NAC Breda
Heracles Almelo
6.1
Corners won · league 5.3
8.7
3.3
Corners conceded · league 5.3
3.3
2.2
Cards · league 1.7
1.3
2.4
Opponents' cards · league 1.7
1.8
55%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
50%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
13%
33%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
40%
22%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
20%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
NAC Breda4/5
Heracles Almelo4/5
Both Teams to Score
NAC Breda3/5
Heracles Almelo2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
NAC Breda3/5
Heracles Almelo3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
NAC Breda3/5
Heracles Almelo2/5
First Half Result
NAC Breda3/5
Heracles Almelo1/5
Correct Score
NAC Breda0/5
Heracles Almelo0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction