Brick wall
4/10Heracles Almelo kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 19%).
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Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eerste Divisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 14)
Riding their luck
Roda JC Kerkrade are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+5points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Roda JC Kerkrade 16% to winHeracles Almelo 64%
Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade score prediction
Eerste Divisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Heracles Almelo expected to score more than twice as many as Roda JC Kerkrade
3.2 goals in total, a little under the Eerste Divisie average of 3.3.
goals expected
Heracles Almelo2.2
Roda JC Kerkrade1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eerste Divisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Heracles Almelo to win
Our model 58%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 1,796 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 65%
Our track record
In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 949 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Heracles Almelo ahead at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.3% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Heracles Almelo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Heracles Almelo 2+ goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,489 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Roda JC Kerkrade Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Roda JC Kerkrade 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,368 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Heracles Almelo–
Roda JC Kerkrade–Winner
1 58%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Heracles Almelo–Roda JC Kerkrade–Winner
1 58%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Full Time
158%
X21%
221%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 47% | 53% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 85% | 40% | 60% |
| 40% | 60% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 34% | 85% | 15% |
| 89% | 11% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
143%
X36%
222%
1st Score
162%
X4%
234%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-1
17%
2-2
13%
X-X
11%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.1%
3-2
4.8%
0-1
4.5%
0-0
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: the stats that stand out
Eerste Divisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Heracles Almelo: brick wall, fast starters and banker as favourites
4/10Fast starters
7/10Heracles Almelo scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Banker as favourites
7/10Heracles Almelo won 7 of 10 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: attack vs defence
Eerste Divisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eerste Divisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Heracles Almelo: good attack, good defence (2.53 xG, 0.81 xGA a game)
- Roda JC Kerkrade: weak attack, good defence (1.40 xG, 1.31 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade form and luck check
Eerste Divisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eerste Divisie gamesRoda JC Kerkrade are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Heracles AlmeloBookmakers: 64% to win today.−3.3
- Roda JC KerkradeBookmakers: 16% to win today.+4.6
Last 5 matches
Heracles AlmeloW
D
W
W
D
Roda JC KerkradeW
W
W
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Heracles Almelo 1st of 20 · Roda JC Kerkrade 5th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eerste Divisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eerste Divisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredHeracles Almelo and Roda JC Kerkrade games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Eerste Divisie average (65%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 65%
Heracles Almelo6 of 10
Roda JC Kerkrade4 of 10
BTTSleague 65%
Heracles Almelo5 of 10
Roda JC Kerkrade6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 372 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade corners, cards and goal times
Eerste Divisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.3
- Cards: league 1.7
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 25%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Heracles Almelo3/5
Roda JC Kerkrade3/5
Both Teams to Score
Heracles Almelo3/5
Roda JC Kerkrade4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Heracles Almelo3/5
Roda JC Kerkrade3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Heracles Almelo3/5
Roda JC Kerkrade4/5
First Half Result
Heracles Almelo2/5
Roda JC Kerkrade3/5
Correct Score
Heracles Almelo0/5
Roda JC Kerkrade0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction