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Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Eliteserien - Season 2026 (Round 22)

Robbed

Vålerenga drew despite more chances

Vålerenga

1–1

Fredrikstad

1.5Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Vålerenga would usually take 2.0 points and Fredrikstad 0.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Vålerenga.

Vålerenga −1.0 pts vs chancesFredrikstad +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad stats: how the match was played

Eliteserien

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Vålerenga had clearly more shots on target

Vålerenga

Fredrikstad

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

48%

Possession

53%

The match between Vålerenga and Fredrikstad ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Vålerenga win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vålerenga – Brann prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eliteserien

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vålerenga to win

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vålerenga ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Vålerenga Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vålerenga 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vålerenga 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Fredrikstad Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fredrikstad 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eliteserien - Norway

Vålerenga1

Fredrikstad1

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

· FT

Eliteserien - Norway

Vålerenga1

Fredrikstad1

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

139%

X24%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%	47%	53%	73%	27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	47%	53%	73%	27%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	53%	47%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	26%	74%	55%	45%	79%	21%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	53%	47%
	26%	74%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	79%	21%	92%	8%

1st Half

132%

X40%

229%

1st Score

151%

X4%

245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

22%

X-1

13%

X-X

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.2%

2-1

8.2%

1-2

8.1%

2-2

7.4%

1-0

6.3%

0-1

5.6%

2-0

5.0%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.7%

1-3

4.4%

3-2

4.0%

0-0

3.9%

2-3

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad — Recent Form

Fredrikstad have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Vålerenga have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Fredrikstad

Vålerenga

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Vålerenga

3/5

Fredrikstad

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Vålerenga

4/5

Fredrikstad

5/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Vålerenga

3/5

Fredrikstad

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Vålerenga

3/5

Fredrikstad

4/5

First Half Result

Vålerenga

3/5

Fredrikstad

3/5

Correct Score

Vålerenga

1/5

Fredrikstad

3/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vålerenga – Brann prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).