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NEC vs Excelsior 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
NECNEC

2–2

ExcelsiorExcelsior
1.2Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances NEC would usually take 1.0 points and Excelsior 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: NEC.

NEC 0.0 pts vs chancesExcelsior −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

NEC vs Excelsior stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Excelsior had clearly more shots on target

NEC

Excelsior

3

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

5

2

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

3

70%

Possession

32%

The match between NEC and Excelsior ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a NEC win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – Fortuna Sittard prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

NEC vs Excelsior — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC to win

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,622 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,156 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 286 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: NEC ahead at half-time.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,231 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).

NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Excelsior Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

NEC vs Excelsior 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for NEC vs Excelsior. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
NECNEC2
ExcelsiorExcelsior2

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 56%

Full Time

145%
X24%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT15%85%34%66%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT44%56%71%29%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
NEC21%79%48%52%
Excelsior30%70%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
NEC73%27%88%12%
Excelsior81%19%92%8%

1st Half

135%
X37%
228%

1st Score

152%
X4%
244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

2-2

18%

X-1

13%

X-X

13%

X-2

10%

2-X

7%

1-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

9.4%

2-1

8.6%

2-2

7.6%

1-2

7.0%

1-0

6.3%

2-0

5.6%

3-1

5.4%

0-1

4.6%

3-2

4.5%

0-2

3.8%

0-0

3.8%

1-3

3.7%

3-0

3.4%

2-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – Fortuna Sittard prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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