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NEC vs Feyenoord 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
NECNEC

1–3

FeyenoordFeyenoord
1.0Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances NEC would usually take 1.1 points and Feyenoord 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Feyenoord.

NEC −1.1 pts vs chancesFeyenoord +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

NEC vs Feyenoord stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Feyenoord had more than twice the shots on target

NEC

Feyenoord

2

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

4

1

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

2

62%

Possession

38%

The match between NEC and Feyenoord ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Feyenoord win with 46% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – Fortuna Sittard prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

NEC vs Feyenoord — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Feyenoord to win

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Feyenoord Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Feyenoord 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

NEC vs Feyenoord 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for NEC vs Feyenoord. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
NECNEC1
FeyenoordFeyenoord3

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

131%
X24%
246%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%35%65%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT47%53%73%27%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
NEC31%69%60%40%
Feyenoord21%79%47%53%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
NEC83%17%94%6%
Feyenoord73%27%89%11%

1st Half

126%
X38%
236%

1st Score

141%
X4%
255%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

1-1

18%

X-X

14%

X-2

13%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

4%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

9.7%

1-2

9.2%

2-1

7.3%

2-2

7.2%

0-1

6.4%

0-2

6.0%

1-3

5.4%

1-0

5.2%

2-3

4.3%

0-0

4.0%

2-0

3.8%

0-3

3.7%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – Fortuna Sittard prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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