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PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
PSVPSV

4–1

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
2.9Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances PSV would usually take 2.2 points and Sparta Rotterdam 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: PSV.

PSV +0.8 pts vs chancesSparta Rotterdam −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

PSV had clearly more shots on target

PSV

Sparta Rotterdam

10

Shots on target

6

5

Big chances

4

9

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

1

76%

Possession

24%

The match between PSV and Sparta Rotterdam ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a PSV win with 59% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: PSV – Feyenoord prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PSV to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 82%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 178 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PSV ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

PSV Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PSV 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 88%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Sparta Rotterdam Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
PSVPSV4
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 57%

Full Time

159%
X21%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT15%85%32%68%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT43%57%68%32%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
PSV14%86%37%63%
Sparta Rotterdam43%57%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
PSV62%38%81%19%
Sparta Rotterdam89%11%96%4%

1st Half

151%
X30%
219%

1st Score

163%
X4%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

16%

2-2

11%

X-X

9%

1-X

5%

X-2

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.3%

1-1

8.3%

1-0

7.2%

2-0

7.1%

3-1

6.6%

2-2

6.3%

3-0

5.7%

1-2

5.1%

3-2

4.5%

0-0

3.8%

0-1

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: PSV – Feyenoord prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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