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FC Groningen vs Ajax

FC Groningen vs Ajax 2-5 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)

Fair result

FC Groningen

2–5

Ajax

1.5Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances FC Groningen would usually take 1.0 points and Ajax 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Ajax.

FC Groningen −1.0 pts vs chancesAjax +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

FC Groningen vs Ajax stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ajax had more than twice the shots on target

FC Groningen

Ajax

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

51%

The match between FC Groningen and Ajax ended 2-5. Our AI model correctly predicted an Ajax win with 52% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ajax – AZ prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

FC Groningen vs Ajax — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ajax to win

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 261 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ajax ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

FC Groningen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Groningen 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,666 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Ajax Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ajax 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,590 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

FC Groningen vs Ajax 2-5 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Groningen vs Ajax. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

FC Groningen2

Ajax5

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-2 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

FC Groningen2

Ajax5

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-2 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

Full Time

125%

X23%

252%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%	50%	50%	75%	25%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	50%	50%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	37%	63%	68%	32%	87%	13%	96%	4%
	18%	82%	44%	56%	70%	30%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	37%	63%	68%	32%
	18%	82%	44%	56%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	87%	13%	96%	4%
	70%	30%	87%	13%

1st Half

125%

X33%

241%

1st Score

138%

X4%

258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

1-1

15%

X-2

15%

X-X

11%

X-1

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-2

9.8%

1-1

9.8%

0-1

7.9%

0-2

7.1%

2-1

6.4%

2-2

6.3%

1-3

5.9%

1-0

5.2%

0-3

4.7%

0-0

4.3%

2-3

3.9%

2-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

FC Groningen vs Ajax — Recent Form

Ajax have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. FC Groningen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Ajax

FC Groningen

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Ajax

3/5

FC Groningen

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Ajax

5/5

FC Groningen

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Ajax

4/5

FC Groningen

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Ajax

2/5

FC Groningen

2/5

First Half Result

Ajax

3/5

FC Groningen

2/5

Correct Score

Ajax

1/5

FC Groningen

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ajax – AZ prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).