Brick wall
5/10Ajax kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 20%).
FC Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Riding their luck
FC Groningen are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+4points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: FC Groningen 22% to winAjax 56%
FC Groningen vs Ajax score prediction
Eredivisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.2 goals in total, a little under the Eredivisie average of 3.3.
goals expected
FC Groningen1.4Ajax1.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for FC Groningen vs Ajax: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
FC Groningen vs Ajax — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax to win
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 1,737 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 5,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,008 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 2,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax ahead at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 6,500 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
FC Groningen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 1,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.2% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Ajax Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax 2+ goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 1,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Groningen vs Ajax — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FC Groningen vs Ajax. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FC Groningen–
Ajax–Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
FC Groningen–Ajax–Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Full Time
122%
X23%
255%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 52% | 48% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41% | 59% | 71% | 29% |
| 17% | 83% | 44% | 56% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 69% | 31% | 86% | 14% |
1st Half
125%
X34%
242%
1st Score
140%
X5%
255%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
34%
1-1
15%
X-2
14%
X-X
11%
X-1
9%
1-X
6%
1-2
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.8%
0-3
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
0-0
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
2-3
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Groningen vs Ajax: the stats that stand out
Eredivisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Ajax: brick wall and hard to break
5/10Hard to break
1/9Ajax conceded first in only 1 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →FC Groningen vs Ajax: attack vs defence
Eredivisie
How to read it
other Eredivisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- FC Groningen: weak attack, weak defence (1.48 xG, 1.70 xGA a game)
- Ajax: good attack, good defence (2.38 xG, 1.07 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →FC Groningen vs Ajax form and luck check
Eredivisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eredivisie gamesFC Groningen are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- FC GroningenBookmakers: 22% to win today.Clinical · +3 goals+4.1
- AjaxBookmakers: 56% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−3.2
Last 5 matches
AjaxD
W
W
L
W
FC GroningenW
D
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: FC Groningen 7th of 18 · Ajax 3rd of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →FC Groningen vs Ajax: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eredivisie
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eredivisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFC Groningen games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Eredivisie average (63%), Ajax games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 63%
FC Groningen8 of 10
Ajax6 of 10
BTTSleague 64%
FC Groningen8 of 10
Ajax5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 300 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FC Groningen vs Ajax corners, cards and goal times
Eredivisie
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAjax: last 9 with these statsFC Groningen score early
FC Groningen
Ajax
4.1
Corners won · league 5.3
7.3
5.3
Corners conceded · league 5.3
2.8
1.3
Cards · league 1.6
1.9
1.4
Opponents' cards · league 1.6
1.8
68%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
39%
11%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
26%
53%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
44%
18%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
33%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Ajax3/5
FC Groningen2/5
Both Teams to Score
Ajax4/5
FC Groningen4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Ajax5/5
FC Groningen4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Ajax0/5
FC Groningen2/5
First Half Result
Ajax3/5
FC Groningen2/5
Correct Score
Ajax0/5
FC Groningen1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction