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CSKA Sofia vs Derry City 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 1st Qualifying Round (Qualifying)
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City stats: how the match was played
Europa League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
CSKA Sofia had more than twice the shots on target
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
5
Shots on target
2
6
Corners
5
0
Yellow cards
1
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
CSKA Sofia to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: CSKA Sofia ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
CSKA Sofia 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: CSKA Sofia 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 77 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 65–70%.
Our model’s pick
Derry City 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
CSKA Sofia3
Derry City2Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
CSKA Sofia3Derry City2Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 32% | 68% | 66% | 34% |
 | 32% | 68% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
18%
2-2
17%
X-1
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.4%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score