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  4. PAOK vs Anderlecht

PAOK vs Anderlecht 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 3rd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Smash-and-grab

Anderlecht won with less than half the chances

PAOKPAOK

0–1

AnderlechtAnderlecht
1.4Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances PAOK would usually take 2.0 points and Anderlecht 0.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: PAOK.

PAOK −2.0 pts vs chancesAnderlecht +2.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

PAOK vs Anderlecht stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

PAOK had clearly more shots on target

PAOK

Anderlecht

3

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

5

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

3

63%

Possession

37%

The match between PAOK and Anderlecht ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a PAOK win at 56% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jagiellonia Białystok – Anderlecht prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

PAOK vs Anderlecht — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PAOK to win

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PAOK ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

PAOK Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PAOK 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Anderlecht Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Anderlecht 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

PAOK vs Anderlecht 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for PAOK vs Anderlecht. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
PAOKPAOK0
AnderlechtAnderlecht1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

156%
X24%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
PAOK19%81%49%51%
Anderlecht47%53%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
PAOK75%25%90%10%
Anderlecht93%7%98%2%

1st Half

141%
X39%
219%

1st Score

160%
X7%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

19%

X-X

13%

2-2

11%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.2%

1-1

10.6%

2-0

10.6%

2-1

9.5%

0-0

7.5%

3-0

6.4%

0-1

5.8%

1-2

5.4%

3-1

5.0%

2-2

4.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jagiellonia Białystok – Anderlecht prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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