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Thun vs Lech Poznań 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 Play-offs (Qualifying)

Fair result
ThunThun

2–2

Lech PoznańLech Poznań
0.9Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Thun would usually take 1.2 points and Lech Poznań 1.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Lech Poznań.

Thun −0.1 pts vs chancesLech Poznań −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Thun vs Lech Poznań stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Thun

Lech Poznań

3

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

1

6

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

3

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Thun and Lech Poznań ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Lech Poznań win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lech Poznań – Sunderland prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Thun vs Lech Poznań — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 3,511 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.2% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 938 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 2,227 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Thun Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Thun 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Thun 2+ goals.

Our model 64%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 384 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Lech Poznań Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Lech Poznań 0–1 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 847 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Thun vs Lech Poznań 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Thun vs Lech Poznań. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
ThunThun2
Lech PoznańLech Poznań2

Winner

X2 72%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

128%
X22%
250%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%35%65%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT47%53%72%28%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Thun35%65%64%36%
Lech Poznań19%81%45%55%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Thun84%16%94%6%
Lech Poznań70%30%87%13%

1st Half

120%
X36%
244%

1st Score

134%
X4%
262%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

36%

X-2

15%

1-1

13%

X-X

12%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

9.3%

1-2

9.1%

0-1

7.0%

2-1

6.8%

0-2

6.5%

2-2

6.4%

1-3

5.6%

1-0

5.0%

0-3

4.5%

2-3

4.1%

0-0

4.1%

2-0

3.2%

3-1

3.1%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lech Poznań – Sunderland prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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