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Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 Play-offs (Qualifying)
Kauno Žalgiris1–0
BeşiktaşOn these chances Kauno Žalgiris would usually take 1.1 points and Beşiktaş 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Beşiktaş.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş stats: how the match was played
Europa League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Beşiktaş had more than twice the shots on target
Kauno Žalgiris
Beşiktaş
2
Shots on target
4
2
Big chances
0
2
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
1
28%
Possession
72%
Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Beşiktaş to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Beşiktaş ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Our model’s pick
Beşiktaş 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Beşiktaş 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Kauno Žalgiris1
Beşiktaş0Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
0-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Kauno Žalgiris1Beşiktaş0Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
0-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 57% | 75% | 25% |
| 23% | 77% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 8% | 97% | 3% |
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
26%
1-1
17%
X-X
15%
X-2
15%
X-1
13%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-1
12.1%
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.2%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.4%
1-3
4.8%
2-2
4.4%
2-0
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score