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AC Milan vs Benfica

Milan vs Benfica 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result

Milan

0–2

Benfica

1.4Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Milan would usually take 1.6 points and Benfica 1.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Milan.

Milan −1.6 pts vs chancesBenfica +1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Milan vs Benfica stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Milan

Benfica

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Milan and Benfica ended 0-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Benfica win with 44% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: AFC Bournemouth – Milan prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Milan vs Benfica — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Milan to win.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 27%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Milan Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Milan 2+ goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Benfica Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Milan vs Benfica 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Milan vs Benfica. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Milan0

Benfica2

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Milan0

Benfica2

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

132%

X24%

244%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%	53%	47%	78%	22%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	53%	47%	78%	22%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	63%	37%	84%	16%	95%	5%
	23%	77%	53%	47%	76%	24%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	63%	37%
	23%	77%	53%	47%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	95%	5%
	76%	24%	90%	10%

1st Half

123%

X38%

239%

1st Score

141%

X5%

254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

33%

X-2

15%

X-X

14%

1-1

13%

X-1

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.5%

1-2

8.5%

0-1

7.8%

2-1

7.5%

1-0

6.5%

0-2

6.5%

2-2

6.0%

0-0

5.5%

1-3

4.8%

2-0

4.4%

0-3

3.9%

3-1

3.4%

2-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: AFC Bournemouth – Milan prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).