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Beşiktaş vs Olympique Marseille 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result
BeşiktaşBeşiktaş

4–1

Olympique MarseilleOlympique Marseille
1.8Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Beşiktaş would usually take 1.8 points and Olympique Marseille 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Beşiktaş.

Beşiktaş +1.2 pts vs chancesOlympique Marseille −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Beşiktaş vs Olympique Marseille stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Beşiktaş had more than twice the shots on target

Beşiktaş

Olympique Marseille

7

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

1

3

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

1

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Beşiktaş and Olympique Marseille ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Beşiktaş win with 57% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Beşiktaş vs Olympique Marseille — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Beşiktaş to win

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Beşiktaş ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Beşiktaş Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Olympique Marseille Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Beşiktaş vs Olympique Marseille 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Beşiktaş vs Olympique Marseille. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
BeşiktaşBeşiktaş4
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Marseille1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

Full Time

157%
X21%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%37%63%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT50%50%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Beşiktaş16%84%41%59%
Olympique Marseille42%58%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Beşiktaş67%33%85%15%
Olympique Marseille89%11%97%3%

1st Half

143%
X36%
221%

1st Score

163%
X4%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

19%

X-X

12%

2-2

12%

X-2

7%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.9%

1-1

9.1%

2-0

8.2%

1-0

8.1%

3-1

6.3%

3-0

6.1%

2-2

5.7%

1-2

5.7%

0-1

4.5%

0-0

4.0%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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