Wrexham vs Nottingham Forest 3-3 Score & Prediction Review
FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)
Wrexham vs Nottingham Forest stats: how the match was played
FA Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Nottingham Forest created clearly more chances
Wrexham
Nottingham Forest
1.9
Chances (xG)
2.7
7
Shots on target
10
3
Big chances
0
8
Corners
7
1
Yellow cards
4
38%
Possession
62%
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Wrexham vs Nottingham Forest — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · FA Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Wrexham to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Nottingham Forest to win.
Our track record
In 1,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,317 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,775 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,436 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Nottingham Forest ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Wrexham 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,379 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Nottingham Forest 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nottingham Forest 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 321 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Wrexham vs Nottingham Forest 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Wrexham vs Nottingham Forest. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Wrexham3
Nottingham Forest3Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Wrexham3Nottingham Forest3Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29% | 71% | 63% | 38% |
 | 31% | 69% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
21%
2-2
18%
X-1
15%
X-X
15%
X-2
15%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
12.7%
1-0
9.4%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score