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Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County

Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result

Doncaster Rovers

1–1

Notts County

1.3Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Doncaster Rovers would usually take 1.4 points and Notts County 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Doncaster Rovers.

Doncaster Rovers −0.4 pts vs chancesNotts County −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Notts County had clearly more shots on target

Doncaster Rovers

Notts County

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

46%

The match between Doncaster Rovers and Notts County ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Doncaster Rovers win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Doncaster Rovers to win

Wrong

Our model 37%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Doncaster Rovers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Doncaster Rovers 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Notts County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Notts County 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League One - England

Doncaster Rovers1

Notts County1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

League One - England

Doncaster Rovers1

Notts County1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

137%

X29%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%	69%	31%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	68%	32%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	36%	64%	70%	30%	89%	11%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	68%	32%
	36%	64%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	89%	11%	97%	3%

1st Half

127%

X46%

227%

1st Score

145%

X11%

245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

2-2

19%

X-X

17%

X-2

15%

X-1

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

1-0

12.1%

0-0

11.0%

0-1

11.0%

2-1

7.4%

1-2

7.1%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

6.0%

2-2

4.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).