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Rotherham United vs Chesterfield 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Rotherham UnitedRotherham United

2–1

ChesterfieldChesterfield
1.8Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Rotherham United would usually take 1.7 points and Chesterfield 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Chesterfield.

Rotherham United +1.4 pts vs chancesChesterfield −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rotherham United vs Chesterfield stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rotherham United had more than twice the shots on target

Rotherham United

Chesterfield

5

Shots on target

2

6

Big chances

2

2

Corners

0

2

Yellow cards

1

31%

Possession

69%

The match between Rotherham United and Chesterfield ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Chesterfield win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rotherham United – Newport County prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Rotherham United vs Chesterfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Rotherham United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rotherham United 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 75%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Chesterfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rotherham United vs Chesterfield 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rotherham United vs Chesterfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
Rotherham UnitedRotherham United2
ChesterfieldChesterfield1

Winner

X2 74%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

126%
X27%
248%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rotherham United42%58%75%25%
Chesterfield25%75%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rotherham United92%8%98%2%
Chesterfield81%19%93%7%

1st Half

120%
X43%
237%

1st Score

135%
X9%
256%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

31%

X-2

18%

X-X

17%

1-1

12%

X-1

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

0-1

11.9%

0-0

9.1%

0-2

9.1%

1-2

8.7%

1-0

8.1%

2-1

6.1%

2-2

4.7%

0-3

4.6%

1-3

4.3%

2-0

4.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rotherham United – Newport County prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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