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York City vs Swindon Town 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
York CityYork City

4–0

Swindon TownSwindon Town
2.2Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances York City would usually take 2.3 points and Swindon Town 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: York City.

York City +0.8 pts vs chancesSwindon Town −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

York City vs Swindon Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

York City had more than twice the shots on target

York City

Swindon Town

9

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

1

6

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

1

0

Red cards

1

67%

Possession

33%

The match between York City and Swindon Town ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a York City win with 57% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: York City – Accrington Stanley prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

York City vs Swindon Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City to win

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

York City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Swindon Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

York City vs Swindon Town 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for York City vs Swindon Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
York CityYork City4
Swindon TownSwindon Town0

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

157%
X22%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%40%60%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
York City17%83%44%56%
Swindon Town42%58%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
York City69%31%86%14%
Swindon Town91%9%97%3%

1st Half

148%
X33%
219%

1st Score

162%
X5%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

18%

X-X

11%

2-2

11%

X-2

6%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

10.0%

1-1

9.7%

1-0

8.8%

2-0

8.3%

3-1

6.2%

3-0

5.9%

1-2

5.7%

2-2

5.4%

0-1

5.2%

0-0

5.2%

3-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: York City – Accrington Stanley prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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