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Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield

Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Smash-and-grab

Cheltenham Town won with less than half the chances

Cheltenham Town

2–1

Chesterfield

0.8Chances (xG)3.0

On these chances Cheltenham Town would usually take 0.3 points and Chesterfield 2.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Chesterfield.

Cheltenham Town +2.7 pts vs chancesChesterfield −2.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Chesterfield had more than twice the shots on target

Cheltenham Town

Chesterfield

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

34%

Possession

66%

The match between Cheltenham Town and Chesterfield ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Chesterfield win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chesterfield – Colchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield to win

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cheltenham Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cheltenham Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 73%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Chesterfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Cheltenham Town2

Chesterfield1

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

League Two - England

Cheltenham Town2

Chesterfield1

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

123%

X25%

252%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	40%	60%	73%	27%	91%	9%	98%	2%
	20%	80%	50%	50%	76%	24%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	40%	60%	73%	27%
	20%	80%	50%	50%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	98%	2%
	76%	24%	91%	9%

1st Half

121%

X42%

237%

1st Score

134%

X7%

259%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

31%

X-2

19%

X-X

16%

1-1

11%

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.4%

0-1

10.8%

1-2

9.9%

0-2

9.0%

0-0

6.5%

1-0

6.4%

2-1

6.0%

1-3

5.4%

2-2

5.3%

0-3

5.0%

2-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Cheltenham Town vs Chesterfield — Recent Form

Chesterfield have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Cheltenham Town have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Chesterfield

Cheltenham Town

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Chesterfield

2/5

Cheltenham Town

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Chesterfield

2/5

Cheltenham Town

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chesterfield

4/5

Cheltenham Town

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Chesterfield

3/5

Cheltenham Town

4/5

First Half Result

Chesterfield

1/5

Cheltenham Town

2/5

Correct Score

Chesterfield

0/5

Cheltenham Town

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chesterfield – Colchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).