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La Equidad vs Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 15)
La Equidad won with less than half the chances
La Equidad2–1
Fortaleza CEIFOn these chances La Equidad would usually take 0.6 points and Fortaleza CEIF 2.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: La Equidad.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →La Equidad vs Fortaleza CEIF stats: how the match was played
Liga BetPlay
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Fortaleza CEIF had clearly more shots on target
La Equidad
Fortaleza CEIF
2
Shots on target
3
0
Big chances
1
3
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
4
1
Red cards
0
30%
Possession
71%
La Equidad vs Fortaleza CEIF — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
La Equidad to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
Our model’s pick
La Equidad 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Fortaleza CEIF 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
La Equidad vs Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for La Equidad vs Fortaleza CEIF. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
La Equidad2
Fortaleza CEIF1Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
La Equidad2Fortaleza CEIF1Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 63% | 37% |
| 38% | 62% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
21%
X-1
17%
2-2
13%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
0-2
4.5%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
La Equidad vs Fortaleza CEIF — Recent Form
La Equidad have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table. Fortaleza CEIF have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 19th in the table.
Last 5 matches
La EquidadFortaleza CEIFOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
La EquidadFortaleza CEIFBoth Teams to Score
La EquidadFortaleza CEIFOver/Under 2.5 Goals
La EquidadFortaleza CEIFOver/Under 3.5 Goals
La EquidadFortaleza CEIFFirst Half Result
La EquidadFortaleza CEIFCorrect Score
La EquidadFortaleza CEIF