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Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 2)

Fair result
Alianza PetroleraAlianza Petrolera

1–2

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
1.3Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Alianza Petrolera would usually take 1.1 points and Deportes Tolima 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportes Tolima.

Alianza Petrolera −1.1 pts vs chancesDeportes Tolima +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Deportes Tolima had clearly more shots on target

Alianza Petrolera

Deportes Tolima

3

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

1

2

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

3

33%

Possession

67%

The match between Alianza Petrolera and Deportes Tolima ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Alianza Petrolera win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alianza Petrolera to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Deportes Tolima to win.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Alianza Petrolera Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alianza Petrolera 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Deportes Tolima Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Alianza PetroleraAlianza Petrolera1
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima2

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

144%
X29%
227%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT35%65%62%38%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Alianza Petrolera28%72%64%36%
Deportes Tolima41%59%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Alianza Petrolera87%13%96%4%
Deportes Tolima93%7%98%2%

1st Half

132%
X47%
221%

1st Score

153%
X11%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

21%

X-1

17%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.9%

1-1

13.8%

0-0

11.0%

0-1

9.8%

2-1

8.8%

2-0

8.6%

1-2

6.3%

0-2

4.6%

2-2

4.2%

3-1

3.5%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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