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Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Bucaramanga 2-3 Score & Prediction Review
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 4)
Alianza Petrolera2–3
Atlético BucaramangaOn these chances Alianza Petrolera would usually take 1.5 points and Atlético Bucaramanga 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Alianza Petrolera.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Bucaramanga stats: how the match was played
Liga BetPlay
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Atlético Bucaramanga had clearly more shots on target
Alianza Petrolera
Atlético Bucaramanga
3
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
3
Corners
0
1
Yellow cards
4
50%
Possession
50%
Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Bucaramanga — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Alianza Petrolera to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 5,728 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.9% of the time (bookmakers said 81.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Alianza Petrolera 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Bucaramanga 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.5% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Bucaramanga 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Bucaramanga. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Alianza Petrolera2
Atlético Bucaramanga3Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Alianza Petrolera2Atlético Bucaramanga3Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 37% | 63% | 63% | 37% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 72% | 28% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 64% | 36% |
| 43% | 57% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-X
21%
X-1
17%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.1%
0-0
12.2%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score