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Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Fair result
LlanerosLlaneros

1–2

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
1.2Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Llaneros would usually take 1.0 points and Deportes Tolima 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportes Tolima.

Llaneros −1.0 pts vs chancesDeportes Tolima +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Deportes Tolima had more than twice the shots on target

Llaneros

Deportes Tolima

2

Shots on target

7

1

Big chances

3

4

Corners

8

2

Yellow cards

1

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Llaneros and Deportes Tolima ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Llaneros win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Llaneros to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Deportes Tolima to win.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Llaneros Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Llaneros 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Deportes Tolima Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 75%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
LlanerosLlaneros1
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

141%
X30%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT36%64%63%37%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT72%28%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Llaneros31%69%67%33%
Deportes Tolima40%60%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Llaneros89%11%97%3%
Deportes Tolima93%7%98%2%

1st Half

130%
X48%
222%

1st Score

148%
X12%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

22%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.4%

1-1

13.4%

0-0

12.2%

0-1

10.7%

2-1

8.4%

2-0

7.9%

1-2

6.7%

0-2

5.1%

2-2

4.0%

3-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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