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Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellín 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 7)

Fair result
Deportivo PereiraDeportivo Pereira

0–3

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
0.8Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Deportivo Pereira would usually take 0.5 points and Independiente Medellín 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Medellín.

Deportivo Pereira −0.5 pts vs chancesIndependiente Medellín +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellín stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Independiente Medellín had more than twice the shots on target

Deportivo Pereira

Independiente Medellín

4

Shots on target

10

0

Big chances

3

2

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

4

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Deportivo Pereira and Independiente Medellín ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Independiente Medellín win with 38% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Nacional – Deportivo Pereira prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellín — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín to win

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,094 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.5% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Independiente Medellín ahead at half-time.

Our model 49%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 548 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Deportivo Pereira Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Pereira 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,664 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.5%).

Independiente Medellín Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Medellín 2+ goals.

Our model 65%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 382 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellín 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellín. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Deportivo PereiraDeportivo Pereira0
Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín3

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

133%
X29%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Pereira33%67%68%32%
Independiente Medellín30%70%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Pereira89%11%97%3%
Independiente Medellín87%13%96%4%

1st Half

124%
X49%
227%

1st Score

144%
X9%
247%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

21%

2-2

19%

1-1

17%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.6%

0-1

10.8%

1-0

9.8%

0-0

9.2%

1-2

8.8%

2-1

8.0%

0-2

6.4%

2-0

5.5%

2-2

5.3%

1-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Nacional – Deportivo Pereira prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

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