Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 11)
Independiente Medellín2–1
Jaguares de CórdobaOn these chances Independiente Medellín would usually take 2.0 points and Jaguares de Córdoba 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Medellín.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba stats: how the match was played
Liga BetPlay
Independiente Medellín had more than twice the shots on target
Independiente Medellín
Jaguares de Córdoba
9
Shots on target
1
1
Big chances
1
7
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
55%
Possession
46%
Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Independiente Medellín to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,034 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.8% of the time (bookmakers said 66.6%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 542 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Our model’s pick
Independiente Medellín ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Independiente Medellín 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Jaguares de Córdoba 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.8% of the time (bookmakers said 85.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Independiente Medellín2
Jaguares de Córdoba1Winner
1 62%
BTTS*
No 57%
Correct Score
1-0 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Independiente Medellín2Jaguares de Córdoba1Winner
1 62%
BTTS*
No 57%
Correct Score
1-0 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 47% | 53% |
| 54% | 46% | 85% | 15% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
40%
X-1
22%
X-X
15%
2-2
7%
1-X
5%
X-2
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.7%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
10.1%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
7.3%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
3.8%
2-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba — Recent Form
Independiente Medellín have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Jaguares de Córdoba have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Independiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Independiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaBoth Teams to Score
Independiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Independiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Independiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaFirst Half Result
Independiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaCorrect Score
Independiente MedellínJaguares de Córdoba