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Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 11)

Fair result
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto

1–0

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
1.5Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Deportivo Pasto would usually take 1.5 points and Once Caldas 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Once Caldas.

Deportivo Pasto +1.5 pts vs chancesOnce Caldas −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Deportivo Pasto

Once Caldas

5

Shots on target

5

0

Big chances

0

5

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

3

0

Red cards

1

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Once Caldas win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Deportivo Pasto – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Once Caldas to win

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Deportivo Pasto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Pasto 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Once Caldas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Once Caldas 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto1
Once CaldasOnce Caldas0

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

125%
X30%
246%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT33%67%59%41%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Pasto41%59%77%23%
Once Caldas26%74%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Pasto93%7%98%2%
Once Caldas84%16%95%5%

1st Half

120%
X50%
230%

1st Score

140%
X11%
249%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

X-X

21%

X-2

17%

1-1

13%

X-1

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

13.3%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

10.6%

1-0

9.3%

1-2

9.1%

0-2

8.5%

2-1

6.0%

2-2

4.8%

1-3

3.9%

2-0

3.9%

0-3

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas — Recent Form

Deportivo Pasto have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table. Once Caldas have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
D
L
W
W
D
Once CaldasOnce Caldas
W
W
D
L
L

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
1/5
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
1/5

Both Teams to Score

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
2/5
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
4/5
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
4/5
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
4/5

First Half Result

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
3/5
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
4/5

Correct Score

Once CaldasOnce Caldas
1/5
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto
0/5
W
D
L
Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Deportivo Pasto – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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