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La Equidad vs Once Caldas 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 17)
La Equidad1–1
Once CaldasOn these chances La Equidad would usually take 1.8 points and Once Caldas 0.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Once Caldas.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →La Equidad vs Once Caldas stats: how the match was played
Liga BetPlay
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Once Caldas had clearly more shots on target
La Equidad
Once Caldas
3
Shots on target
5
1
Big chances
1
1
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
2
41%
Possession
59%
La Equidad vs Once Caldas — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
La Equidad to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Once Caldas to win.
Our track record
In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
La Equidad 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Once Caldas 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
La Equidad vs Once Caldas 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for La Equidad vs Once Caldas. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
La Equidad1
Once Caldas1Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
La Equidad1Once Caldas1Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 31% | 69% | 57% | 43% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 66% | 34% |
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
21%
X-X
20%
X-2
17%
1-1
15%
X-1
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.9%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
La Equidad vs Once Caldas — Recent Form
Once Caldas have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. La Equidad have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Once CaldasLa EquidadOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Once CaldasLa EquidadBoth Teams to Score
Once CaldasLa EquidadOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Once CaldasLa EquidadOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Once CaldasLa EquidadFirst Half Result
Once CaldasLa EquidadCorrect Score
Once CaldasLa Equidad