Shot-shy
5/10Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 14)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
2.9goals expected · Liga BetPlay average 2.5
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: over 2.5 goals 58%
Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto score prediction
Liga BetPlay
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert2.9 goals expected
2.9 goals in total: more goals than a typical Liga BetPlay game (average 2.5).
goals expected
Atlético Nacional2.1Deportivo Pasto0.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atlético Nacional to win
Our model 65%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 593 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.0% of the time (bookmakers said 71.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 6,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atlético Nacional ahead at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 59%
Our track record
In 4,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Atlético Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atlético Nacional 2+ goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,339 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Deportivo Pasto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Pasto 0–1 goals
Our model 84%Bookmakers 90%
Our track record
In 1,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Atlético Nacional–
Deportivo Pasto–Winner
1 65%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Atlético Nacional–Deportivo Pasto–Winner
1 65%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
165%
X22%
213%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13% | 87% | 40% | 60% |
| 52% | 48% | 84% | 17% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 32% | 86% | 14% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
147%
X41%
212%
1st Score
169%
X6%
225%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
42%
X-1
21%
X-X
14%
2-2
6%
X-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
12.1%
2-0
11.8%
2-1
10.3%
1-1
10.3%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
0-1
4.3%
2-2
4.1%
1-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: the stats that stand out
Liga BetPlay
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Deportivo Pasto: shot-shy · Atlético Nacional: banker as favourites
5/10Banker as favourites
7/9Atlético Nacional won 7 of 9 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: attack vs defence
Liga BetPlay
How to read it
other Liga BetPlay teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Atlético Nacional: good attack, good defence (1.79 xG, 0.94 xGA a game)
- Deportivo Pasto: weak attack, good defence (1.02 xG, 1.17 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto form and luck check
Liga BetPlay
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga BetPlay gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Atlético NacionalBookmakers: 79% to win today.+0.7
- Deportivo PastoBookmakers: 5% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−2.4
Last 5 matches
Atlético NacionalW
D
L
W
W
Deportivo PastoD
L
W
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Atlético Nacional 1st of 20 · Deportivo Pasto 12th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga BetPlay
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga BetPlay gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Deportivo Pasto games less often than the Liga BetPlay average (53%), in Atlético Nacional games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 49%
Atlético Nacional6 of 10
Deportivo Pasto3 of 10
BTTSleague 53%
Atlético Nacional6 of 10
Deportivo Pasto3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 411 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto corners, cards and goal times
Liga BetPlay
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameDeportivo Pasto score late
Atlético Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
6.9
Corners won · league 4.5
4.4
3.5
Corners conceded · league 4.5
3.9
2.7
Cards · league 2.9
3.8
2.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.9
2.9
52%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
50%
29%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
33%
70%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
54%
10%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
8%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atlético Nacional3/5
Deportivo Pasto1/5
Both Teams to Score
Atlético Nacional5/5
Deportivo Pasto4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Atlético Nacional3/5
Deportivo Pasto3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Atlético Nacional3/5
Deportivo Pasto4/5
First Half Result
Atlético Nacional3/5
Deportivo Pasto4/5
Correct Score
Atlético Nacional1/5
Deportivo Pasto0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction