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Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 14)

Fair result

Atlético Nacional

3–0

Deportivo Pasto

1.8Chances (xG)0.3

On these chances Atlético Nacional would usually take 2.5 points and Deportivo Pasto 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Nacional.

Atlético Nacional +0.5 pts vs chancesDeportivo Pasto −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Atlético Nacional had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Nacional

Deportivo Pasto

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

64%

Possession

36%

The match between Atlético Nacional and Deportivo Pasto ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Atlético Nacional win with 62% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Bucaramanga – Atlético Nacional prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional to win

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,065 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,964 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 6,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Atlético Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Deportivo Pasto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Pasto 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 2,569 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Atlético Nacional3

Deportivo Pasto0

Winner

1 62%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Atlético Nacional3

Deportivo Pasto0

Winner

1 62%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

162%

X23%

216%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	57%	43%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	57%	43%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	15%	86%	41%	59%	69%	31%	86%	14%
	48%	52%	80%	20%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	15%	86%	41%	59%
	48%	52%	80%	20%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	69%	31%	86%	14%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

1st Half

144%

X41%

214%

1st Score

168%

X6%

226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

21%

X-X

14%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

11.1%

2-0

10.4%

1-1

10.4%

2-1

10.3%

3-0

7.6%

3-1

6.0%

0-0

5.8%

2-2

4.9%

0-1

4.8%

1-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto — Recent Form

Atlético Nacional have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Deportivo Pasto have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Atlético Nacional

Deportivo Pasto

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Atlético Nacional

3/5

Deportivo Pasto

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Atlético Nacional

2/5

Deportivo Pasto

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Atlético Nacional

3/5

Deportivo Pasto

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Atlético Nacional

4/5

Deportivo Pasto

5/5

First Half Result

Atlético Nacional

2/5

Deportivo Pasto

3/5

Correct Score

Atlético Nacional

1/5

Deportivo Pasto

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Bucaramanga – Atlético Nacional prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).