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Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima

Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 15)

Fair result

Rionegro Águilas

2–1

Deportes Tolima

1.6Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Rionegro Águilas would usually take 2.1 points and Deportes Tolima 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportes Tolima.

Rionegro Águilas +0.9 pts vs chancesDeportes Tolima −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Rionegro Águilas

Deportes Tolima

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

46%

Possession

55%

The match between Rionegro Águilas and Deportes Tolima ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rionegro Águilas win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Fortaleza CEIF prediction & betting tips (Nov 2, 2026).

Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rionegro Águilas to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Deportes Tolima to win.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,071 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Rionegro Águilas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rionegro Águilas 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Deportes Tolima Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Rionegro Águilas2

Deportes Tolima1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Rionegro Águilas2

Deportes Tolima1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

145%

X29%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	56%	44%	68%	32%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	60%	40%	85%	15%	96%	4%
	38%	62%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	60%	40%
	38%	62%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	96%	4%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

132%

X47%

221%

1st Score

154%

X9%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.4%

1-0

12.3%

2-1

9.9%

0-0

9.3%

0-1

8.6%

2-0

8.3%

1-2

6.7%

2-2

4.9%

0-2

4.3%

3-0

3.7%

3-1

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Rionegro Águilas vs Deportes Tolima — Recent Form

Rionegro Águilas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Deportes Tolima have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Rionegro Águilas

Deportes Tolima

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Rionegro Águilas

2/5

Deportes Tolima

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Rionegro Águilas

2/5

Deportes Tolima

5/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rionegro Águilas

3/5

Deportes Tolima

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Rionegro Águilas

4/5

Deportes Tolima

4/5

First Half Result

Rionegro Águilas

1/5

Deportes Tolima

2/5

Correct Score

Rionegro Águilas

1/5

Deportes Tolima

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Fortaleza CEIF prediction & betting tips (Nov 2, 2026).