Mazatlán vs Juárez 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 1)
Mazatlán1–2
JuárezOn these chances Mazatlán would usually take 0.9 points and Juárez 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Juárez.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Mazatlán vs Juárez stats: how the match was played
Liga MX
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Juárez had clearly more shots on target
Mazatlán
Juárez
2
Shots on target
3
0
Big chances
2
2
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
0
47%
Possession
53%
Mazatlán vs Juárez — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Juárez to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,577 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,254 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,647 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,623 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Mazatlán 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Juárez 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,660 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Mazatlán vs Juárez 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Mazatlán vs Juárez. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Mazatlán1
Juárez2Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Mazatlán1Juárez2Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 56% | 44% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 64% | 70% | 30% |
| 30% | 70% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
2-2
20%
X-X
16%
X-2
14%
X-1
13%
1-X
7%
2-1
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.0%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score