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Monterrey vs Toluca 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
MonterreyMonterrey

0–1

TolucaToluca
1.5Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Monterrey would usually take 1.6 points and Toluca 1.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Monterrey.

Monterrey −1.6 pts vs chancesToluca +1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Monterrey vs Toluca stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Monterrey had more than twice the shots on target

Monterrey

Toluca

5

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

1

2

Corners

4

0

Yellow cards

5

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Monterrey and Toluca ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Monterrey win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: León – Toluca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Monterrey vs Toluca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monterrey to win

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 3,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,709 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,165 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,969 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,670 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Monterrey Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monterrey 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Monterrey 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,021 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.0% than to our 55–60%.

Toluca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toluca 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Monterrey vs Toluca 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Monterrey vs Toluca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
MonterreyMonterrey0
TolucaToluca1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

142%
X26%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Monterrey25%75%57%43%
Toluca33%67%66%34%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Monterrey81%19%93%7%
Toluca87%13%96%4%

1st Half

132%
X40%
228%

1st Score

149%
X7%
245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

20%

X-X

17%

X-1

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

9.4%

2-1

9.3%

0-1

7.6%

1-2

7.4%

0-0

6.7%

2-0

6.7%

2-2

5.8%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.2%

3-0

3.5%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: León – Toluca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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