2. Leagues
  3. Liga MX
  4. León vs Tigres UANL

León vs Tigres UANL 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 4)

Fair result
LeónLeón

1–2

Tigres UANLTigres UANL
1.4Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances León would usually take 1.2 points and Tigres UANL 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Tigres UANL.

León −1.2 pts vs chancesTigres UANL +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

León vs Tigres UANL stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tigres UANL had clearly more shots on target

León

Tigres UANL

4

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

2

6

Corners

4

5

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

51%

Possession

49%

The match between León and Tigres UANL ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Tigres UANL win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pachuca – Tigres UANL prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

León vs Tigres UANL — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL to win

Correct
Our model 39%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.3% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,864 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

León Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

León 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,699 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Tigres UANL Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

León vs Tigres UANL 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for León vs Tigres UANL. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
LeónLeón1
Tigres UANLTigres UANL2

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

135%
X26%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
León32%68%67%33%
Tigres UANL29%71%63%37%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
León88%12%97%3%
Tigres UANL85%15%95%5%

1st Half

127%
X41%
232%

1st Score

143%
X8%
249%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

20%

X-X

16%

X-2

16%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

0-1

10.2%

1-0

9.9%

1-2

8.3%

0-0

7.8%

2-1

7.6%

0-2

6.8%

2-0

6.0%

2-2

5.1%

1-3

3.7%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pachuca – Tigres UANL prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores