Tijuana vs León 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)
Tijuana1–0
LeónOn these chances Tijuana would usually take 2.1 points and León 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Tijuana.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Tijuana vs León stats: how the match was played
Liga MX
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Tijuana had clearly more shots on target
Tijuana
León
3
Shots on target
2
3
Big chances
2
3
Corners
10
0
Yellow cards
2
39%
Possession
61%
Tijuana vs León — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Tijuana to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Tijuana 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Tijuana 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
León 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Tijuana vs León 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tijuana vs León. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Tijuana1
León0Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Tijuana1León0Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 52% | 48% |
| 44% | 56% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
X-1
17%
X-X
15%
2-2
14%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-0
12.5%
1-1
10.9%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.0%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score