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Tijuana vs Cruz Azul 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
TijuanaTijuana

2–1

Cruz AzulCruz Azul
1.8Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Tijuana would usually take 1.5 points and Cruz Azul 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cruz Azul.

Tijuana +1.5 pts vs chancesCruz Azul −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cruz Azul had clearly more shots on target

Tijuana

Cruz Azul

4

Shots on target

6

6

Big chances

2

5

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

4

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Tijuana and Cruz Azul ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Cruz Azul win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Toluca – Tijuana prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Tijuana Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tijuana 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Cruz Azul Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tijuana vs Cruz Azul. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
TijuanaTijuana2
Cruz AzulCruz Azul1

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

125%
X27%
248%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Tijuana42%58%75%25%
Cruz Azul25%75%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Tijuana93%7%98%2%
Cruz Azul80%20%93%7%

1st Half

123%
X43%
234%

1st Score

137%
X10%
253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-2

18%

X-X

15%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

4%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

12.4%

1-1

11.8%

0-0

9.8%

1-2

8.9%

1-0

8.4%

0-2

8.3%

2-1

6.0%

1-3

4.6%

2-2

4.6%

0-3

4.2%

2-0

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Toluca – Tijuana prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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