Necaxa vs León 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)
Necaxa1–2
LeónOn these chances Necaxa would usually take 1.6 points and León 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: León.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Necaxa vs León stats: how the match was played
Liga MX
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Necaxa
León
8
Shots on target
7
1
Big chances
4
7
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
60%
Possession
40%
Necaxa vs León — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Necaxa to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: León to win.
Our track record
In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Necaxa 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
León 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Necaxa vs León 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Necaxa vs León. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Necaxa1
León2Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Necaxa1León2Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 52% | 48% |
| 31% | 69% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-1
16%
X-X
16%
2-2
16%
X-2
13%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5.0%
0-0
5.0%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
3.5%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
3.4%
2-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score