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América vs Puebla

América vs Puebla 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

América

2–0

Puebla

1.8Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances América would usually take 1.3 points and Puebla 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: América.

América +1.7 pts vs chancesPuebla −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

América vs Puebla stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

América

Puebla

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

54%

Possession

46%

The match between América and Puebla ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a América win with 64% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlas – América prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

América vs Puebla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

América to win

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

América ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

América Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

América 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

América vs Puebla 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for América vs Puebla. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

América2

Puebla0

Winner

1 64%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

América2

Puebla0

Winner

1 64%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

164%

X21%

214%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	57%	43%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	57%	43%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	40%	60%	67%	33%	85%	15%
	51%	49%	81%	19%	94%	6%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	40%	60%
	51%	49%	81%	19%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	67%	33%	85%	15%
	94%	6%	99%	1%

1st Half

147%

X37%

216%

1st Score

169%

X6%

225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

21%

X-X

11%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

11.6%

2-0

11.2%

2-1

10.3%

1-1

9.5%

3-0

7.5%

3-1

6.2%

0-0

5.9%

0-1

4.5%

2-2

4.4%

1-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlas – América prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).