León vs Juárez 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
León won with less than half the chances
León2–1
JuárezOn these chances León would usually take 0.8 points and Juárez 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: León.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →León vs Juárez stats: how the match was played
Liga MX
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
León had more than twice the shots on target
León
Juárez
3
Shots on target
1
1
Big chances
3
1
Corners
4
2
Yellow cards
2
56%
Possession
44%
León vs Juárez — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
León to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: León ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
León 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Juárez 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
León vs Juárez 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for León vs Juárez. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
León2
Juárez1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
León2Juárez1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 43% | 57% |
| 40% | 60% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
20%
X-X
12%
2-2
10%
X-2
7%
2-1
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.4%
1-1
10.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-0
5.3%
0-1
5.0%
0-0
4.6%
3-2
4.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
León vs Juárez — Recent Form
León have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Juárez have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.
Last 5 matches
LeónJuárezOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
JuárezLeónBoth Teams to Score
JuárezLeónOver/Under 2.5 Goals
JuárezLeónOver/Under 3.5 Goals
JuárezLeónFirst Half Result
JuárezLeónCorrect Score
JuárezLeón