Hard to break
2/10Toluca conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Toluca vs Atlético San Luis
3.3goals expected · Liga MX average 2.9
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis score prediction
Liga MX
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.3 goals expected
3.3 goals in total: more goals than a typical Liga MX game (average 2.9).
goals expected
Toluca2.4
Atlético San Luis1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →The match Toluca vs Atlético San Luis will be played on Sunday, October 18 as part of the 2026/2027 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 12 of the Liga MX, played in Mexico. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Toluca vs Atlético San Luis, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Toluca vs Atlético San Luis. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Toluca–
Atlético San Luis–Winner
1 65%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Toluca–Atlético San Luis–Winner
1 65%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
165%
X20%
215%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 35% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11% | 89% | 34% | 66% |
| 48% | 52% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 39% | 81% | 19% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
147%
X36%
216%
1st Score
169%
X4%
227%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
44%
X-1
20%
X-X
10%
2-2
7%
X-2
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.5%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
8.7%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
7.1%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
4.7%
0-0
4.0%
3-2
3.7%
0-1
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis: the stats that stand out
Liga MX
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Toluca: hard to break · Atlético San Luis: shot-shy and leaky
2/10Shot-shy
4/10Atlético San Luis failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 24%).
Leaky
1/10Atlético San Luis kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 24%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Toluca vs Atlético San Luis: attack vs defence
Liga MX
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga MX teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Toluca: good attack, good defence (1.96 xG, 1.41 xGA a game)
- Atlético San Luis: weak attack, weak defence (1.46 xG, 1.70 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Toluca vs Atlético San Luis form and luck check
Liga MX
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga MX gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Toluca−2.2
- Atlético San Luis+0.6
Last 5 matches
Atlético San LuisW
W
L
L
W
TolucaL
D
L
W
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Toluca 1st of 18 · Atlético San Luis 13th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Toluca vs Atlético San Luis: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga MX
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga MX gamesBTTS = both teams scoredToluca and Atlético San Luis games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Liga MX average (54%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 54%
Toluca8 of 10
Atlético San Luis7 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Toluca7 of 10
Atlético San Luis6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 322 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Toluca vs Atlético San Luis corners, cards and goal times
Liga MX
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAtlético San Luis score late
Toluca
Atlético San Luis
6.1
Corners won · league 4.9
2.8
5.1
Corners conceded · league 4.9
6.6
1.6
Cards · league 2.3
1.4
2.2
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
1.4
48%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
36%
13%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
36%
40%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
28%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
28%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Toluca3/5
Atlético San Luis3/5
Both Teams to Score
Toluca4/5
Atlético San Luis3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Toluca4/5
Atlético San Luis4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Toluca1/5
Atlético San Luis2/5
First Half Result
Toluca3/5
Atlético San Luis2/5
Correct Score
Toluca1/5
Atlético San Luis0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction