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Monaco vs Lens

Monaco vs Lens 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result

Monaco

2–1

Lens

1.3Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Monaco would usually take 1.4 points and Lens 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Monaco.

Monaco +1.6 pts vs chancesLens −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Monaco vs Lens stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Monaco had clearly more shots on target

Monaco

Lens

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Monaco and Lens ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Monaco win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lens – Olympique Lyonnais prediction & betting tips (Oct 9, 2026).

Monaco vs Lens — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monaco to win

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,007 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 882 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 60.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Monaco ahead at half-time.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,155 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.2% than to our 35–40%.

Monaco Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monaco 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Monaco 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.

Lens Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Monaco vs Lens 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Monaco vs Lens. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Monaco2

Lens1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Monaco2

Lens1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

143%

X24%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	35%	65%	47%	53%	73%	27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	35%	65%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	47%	53%	73%	27%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	51%	49%	75%	25%	90%	10%
	29%	71%	58%	42%	81%	19%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	51%	49%
	29%	71%	58%	42%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	75%	25%	90%	10%
	81%	19%	92%	8%

1st Half

132%

X38%

230%

1st Score

150%

X4%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

21%

X-1

14%

X-X

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.9%

2-1

8.7%

1-2

7.4%

2-2

7.4%

1-0

6.5%

2-0

5.4%

0-1

5.4%

3-1

5.0%

0-2

4.3%

3-2

4.0%

0-0

3.9%

1-3

3.8%

2-3

3.3%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Monaco vs Lens — Recent Form

Monaco have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Lens have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Monaco

Lens

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lens

2/5

Monaco

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Lens

4/5

Monaco

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lens

3/5

Monaco

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lens

3/5

Monaco

5/5

First Half Result

Lens

2/5

Monaco

2/5

Correct Score

Lens

0/5

Monaco

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lens – Olympique Lyonnais prediction & betting tips (Oct 9, 2026).