Home
Leagues
Ligue 1
LOSC Lille vs Brest

Lille vs Brest 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Robbed

Lille drew despite more chances

Lille

1–1

Brest

2.4Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Lille would usually take 2.4 points and Brest 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Lille.

Lille −1.4 pts vs chancesBrest +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lille vs Brest stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lille had more than twice the shots on target

Lille

Brest

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Lille and Brest ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Lille win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brest – Nice prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Lille vs Brest — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille to win

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Lille Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Lille 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,850 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Brest Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brest 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lille vs Brest 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lille vs Brest. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Lille1

Brest1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Lille1

Brest1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

153%

X25%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	51%	49%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	43%	57%	76%	24%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	51%	49%
	43%	57%	76%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

142%

X40%

218%

1st Score

162%

X7%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

18%

X-X

14%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.1%

1-1

11.6%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

9.6%

0-0

7.3%

0-1

6.8%

1-2

5.7%

3-0

5.6%

3-1

5.1%

2-2

4.7%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Lille vs Brest — Recent Form

Lille have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Brest have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Lille

Brest

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Brest

3/5

Lille

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Brest

4/5

Lille

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brest

1/5

Lille

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Brest

4/5

Lille

5/5

First Half Result

Brest

1/5

Lille

1/5

Correct Score

Brest

1/5

Lille

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brest – Nice prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).