Várda SE vs Újpest 2-4 Score & Prediction Review
NB I. - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)
Várda SE2–4
ÚjpestOn these chances Várda SE would usually take 0.4 points and Újpest 2.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Újpest.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Várda SE vs Újpest stats: how the match was played
NB I.
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Újpest had more than twice the shots on target
Várda SE
Újpest
2
Shots on target
9
1
Big chances
9
6
Corners
4
2
Yellow cards
0
44%
Possession
56%
Várda SE vs Újpest — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · NB I.
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Újpest to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Várda SE 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Újpest 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Várda SE vs Újpest 2-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Várda SE vs Újpest. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Várda SE2
Újpest4Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Várda SE2Újpest4Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 58% | 42% |
| 25% | 75% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 93% | 7% |
| 79% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
1-1
19%
X-X
16%
X-2
13%
X-1
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
5.7%
0-0
5.2%
2-0
4.8%
1-3
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score