Shot-shy
7/10Smouha failed to score in 7 of their last 10 (league 32%).
Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Unlucky
Smouha are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Smouha 43% to winGhazl El Mehalla 24%
Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Bore draw alertJust 1.6 goals expected
1.6 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Premier League average is 2.1).
goals expected
Smouha0.9
Ghazl El Mehalla0.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Smouha to win
Our model 37%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 2,051 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,378 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 89%Bookmakers 89%
Our track record
In 392 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.8% of the time (bookmakers said 86.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.5% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Smouha Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Smouha 0–1 goals
Our model 75%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 1,547 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.2% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Ghazl El Mehalla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ghazl El Mehalla 0–1 goals
Our model 81%Bookmakers 84%
Our track record
In 1,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Smouha–
Ghazl El Mehalla–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
No 65%
Correct Score
0-0 18%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 73%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 79%
Smouha–Ghazl El Mehalla–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
No 65%
Correct Score
0-0 18%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 73%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 79%
Full Time
137%
X35%
228%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 47% | 53% | 73% | 27% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 79% | 21% | 95% | 5% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39% | 61% | 75% | 25% |
| 45% | 55% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
124%
X54%
221%
1st Score
144%
X18%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
X-X
25%
1-1
20%
X-1
15%
2-2
14%
X-2
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
0-0
17.7%
1-0
15.3%
1-1
14.0%
0-1
13.5%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
5.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Smouha: shot-shy and always chasing
7/10Always chasing
8/10Smouha conceded first in 8 of their last 10 (league 43%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Smouha: weak attack, good defence (0.78 xG, 1.00 xGA a game)
- Ghazl El Mehalla: weak attack, good defence (0.88 xG, 1.12 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesSmouha are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- SmouhaBookmakers: 43% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−6.8
- Ghazl El MehallaBookmakers: 24% to win today.−2.4
Last 5 matches
SmouhaW
L
L
D
L
Ghazl El MehallaL
L
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Smouha 16th of 20 · Ghazl El Mehalla 18th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Smouha and Ghazl El Mehalla games less often than the Premier League average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 36%
Smouha2 of 10
Ghazl El Mehalla4 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Smouha2 of 10
Ghazl El Mehalla3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 274 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Premier League average
Smouha
Ghazl El Mehalla
3.8
Corners won · league 4.5
3.3
4.9
Corners conceded · league 4.5
3.7
2.3
Cards · league 2.0
1.5
2.3
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
1.9
67%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
50%
0%
Goals after 75' · league 28%
25%
33%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
40%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 28%
27%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Smouha3/5
Ghazl El Mehalla5/5
Both Teams to Score
Smouha5/5
Ghazl El Mehalla4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Smouha5/5
Ghazl El Mehalla3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Smouha5/5
Ghazl El Mehalla4/5
First Half Result
Smouha4/5
Ghazl El Mehalla3/5
Correct Score
Smouha3/5
Ghazl El Mehalla2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction