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Fulham vs Chelsea 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
FulhamFulham

2–3

ChelseaChelsea
1.5Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Fulham would usually take 1.2 points and Chelsea 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Chelsea.

Fulham −1.2 pts vs chancesChelsea +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fulham vs Chelsea stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Fulham

Chelsea

6

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

4

6

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

3

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Fulham and Chelsea ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Fulham win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chelsea – Manchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Fulham vs Chelsea — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fulham to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Chelsea to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 26%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Fulham Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fulham 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Chelsea Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Chelsea 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fulham vs Chelsea 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fulham vs Chelsea. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
FulhamFulham2
ChelseaChelsea3

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

138%
X24%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%38%62%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Fulham26%74%56%44%
Chelsea27%73%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Fulham80%20%93%7%
Chelsea80%20%93%7%

1st Half

128%
X44%
228%

1st Score

150%
X5%
245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

2-2

20%

X-X

15%

X-2

15%

X-1

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.6%

2-1

8.8%

1-2

8.7%

0-1

6.6%

2-2

6.6%

1-0

6.5%

2-0

5.2%

0-0

4.9%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.2%

1-3

4.2%

3-2

3.3%

3-0

3.3%

2-3

3.2%

0-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chelsea – Manchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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