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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result

Brighton & Hove Albion

1–1

Leeds United

2.0Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Brighton & Hove Albion would usually take 1.7 points and Leeds United 1.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Brighton & Hove Albion.

Brighton & Hove Albion −0.7 pts vs chancesLeeds United −0.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Brighton & Hove Albion

Leeds United

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Leeds United ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Brighton & Hove Albion win at 60% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Leeds United – Manchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brighton & Hove Albion to win

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,065 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,185 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,576 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brighton & Hove Albion ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,824 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Leeds United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leeds United 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 81%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.7% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Brighton & Hove Albion1

Leeds United1

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Premier League - England

Brighton & Hove Albion1

Leeds United1

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

160%

X23%

216%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	49%	51%	60%	40%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	46%	54%	72%	28%	88%	12%
	49%	51%	81%	19%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	46%	54%
	49%	51%	81%	19%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	72%	28%	88%	12%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

146%

X39%

215%

1st Score

164%

X7%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

19%

X-X

13%

2-2

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.9%

1-1

10.5%

2-0

10.4%

2-1

9.8%

0-0

7.3%

3-0

6.4%

3-1

5.8%

0-1

5.4%

2-2

4.6%

1-2

4.4%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Leeds United – Manchester United prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).