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Arsenal vs Chelsea 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
ArsenalArsenal

2–1

ChelseaChelsea
2.0Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Arsenal would usually take 1.9 points and Chelsea 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Arsenal.

Arsenal +1.2 pts vs chancesChelsea −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Arsenal vs Chelsea stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Arsenal had clearly more shots on target

Arsenal

Chelsea

9

Shots on target

5

4

Big chances

1

5

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

4

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Arsenal and Chelsea ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Arsenal win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Arsenal vs Chelsea — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Arsenal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Chelsea Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Arsenal vs Chelsea 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Arsenal vs Chelsea. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - England
ArsenalArsenal2
ChelseaChelsea1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

155%
X21%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%35%65%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT47%53%72%28%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Arsenal16%84%42%58%
Chelsea38%62%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Arsenal68%32%85%15%
Chelsea87%13%95%5%

1st Half

143%
X39%
218%

1st Score

167%
X4%
229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

18%

X-X

14%

2-2

11%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.9%

1-1

9.0%

1-0

7.6%

2-0

7.4%

3-1

6.4%

2-2

6.1%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

4.9%

3-2

4.4%

0-1

4.2%

0-0

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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