Home
Leagues
Primera Division
Peñarol vs Wanderers

Peñarol vs Wanderers 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 13)

Peñarol vs Wanderers stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Wanderers had more than twice the shots on target

Peñarol

Wanderers

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

The match between Peñarol and Wanderers ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Peñarol win at 59% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Peñarol vs Wanderers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peñarol to win

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,803 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,885 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 4,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Peñarol ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,293 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Peñarol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peñarol 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,823 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Wanderers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Wanderers 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 2,573 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Peñarol vs Wanderers 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Peñarol vs Wanderers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Peñarol1

Wanderers1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Peñarol1

Wanderers1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

159%

X22%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	48%	52%	62%	38%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	47%	53%	74%	26%	89%	11%
	47%	54%	79%	21%	94%	6%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	47%	53%
	47%	54%	79%	21%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	74%	26%	89%	11%
	94%	6%	99%	1%

1st Half

141%

X42%

217%

1st Score

163%

X7%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

34%

X-1

21%

X-X

15%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.0%

2-1

11.0%

2-0

10.5%

1-1

10.3%

0-0

6.9%

3-0

6.6%

0-1

6.0%

3-1

5.4%

1-2

5.1%

2-2

4.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Peñarol vs Wanderers — Recent Form

Peñarol have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Wanderers have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Peñarol

Wanderers

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Wanderers

1/5

Peñarol

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Wanderers

3/5

Peñarol

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Wanderers

2/5

Peñarol

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Wanderers

4/5

Peñarol

5/5

First Half Result

Wanderers

4/5

Peñarol

4/5

Correct Score

Wanderers

0/5

Peñarol

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction