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Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 6)
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado stats: how the match was played
Primera Division
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
4
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
3
4
Yellow cards
3
1
Red cards
0
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Maldonado to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Progreso 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Progreso1
Deportivo Maldonado0Winner
2 54%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
0-1 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Progreso1Deportivo Maldonado0Winner
2 54%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
0-1 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 69% | 57% | 43% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 47% | 53% | 81% | 19% |
 | 22% | 78% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
34%
X-2
19%
X-X
17%
1-1
10%
X-1
8%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
14.7%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
7.4%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
4.9%
1-3
4.6%
2-2
3.8%
2-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score