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Peñarol vs Cerro Largo 3-0 Score & Prediction Review
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 7)
Peñarol vs Cerro Largo stats: how the match was played
Primera Division
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Peñarol had more than twice the shots on target
Peñarol
Cerro Largo
9
Shots on target
4
5
Corners
7
2
Yellow cards
1
Peñarol vs Cerro Largo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Peñarol to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Peñarol ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Peñarol 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Peñarol 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Cerro Largo 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Peñarol vs Cerro Largo 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Peñarol vs Cerro Largo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Peñarol3
Cerro Largo0Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Peñarol3Cerro Largo0Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 37% | 63% | 64% | 36% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 74% | 26% | 92% | 8% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25% | 75% | 60% | 40% |
 | 49% | 51% | 83% | 17% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
19%
X-X
19%
2-2
10%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
16.5%
1-1
12.7%
0-0
12.0%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
0-1
8.5%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.8%
3-1
3.7%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score