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  4. Atlético Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 2)

Fair result
ProgresoProgreso

0–2

Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado
0.9Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Progreso would usually take 1.4 points and Deportivo Maldonado 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportivo Maldonado.

Progreso −1.4 pts vs chancesDeportivo Maldonado +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Progreso

Deportivo Maldonado

3

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

0

5

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

2

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado ended 0-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Deportivo Maldonado win with 49% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Maldonado to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Progreso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Progreso 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Deportivo Maldonado Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
ProgresoProgreso0
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado2

Winner

X2 76%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

124%
X27%
249%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Progreso44%56%78%22%
Deportivo Maldonado25%75%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Progreso94%7%99%1%
Deportivo Maldonado83%17%94%6%

1st Half

120%
X43%
237%

1st Score

134%
X10%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

30%

X-X

17%

X-2

17%

1-1

12%

X-1

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

13.7%

1-1

12.4%

0-0

9.8%

0-2

9.7%

1-2

9.2%

1-0

8.5%

2-1

5.8%

0-3

4.6%

2-2

4.1%

1-3

4.0%

2-0

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

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