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Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 3)

Robbed

Defensor Sporting drew despite more chances

Cerro Largo

1–1

Defensor Sporting

0.6Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Cerro Largo would usually take 0.7 points and Defensor Sporting 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Defensor Sporting.

Cerro Largo +0.3 pts vs chancesDefensor Sporting −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Defensor Sporting had more than twice the shots on target

Cerro Largo

Defensor Sporting

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

71%

Possession

29%

The match between Cerro Largo and Defensor Sporting ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Cerro Largo win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Defensor Sporting – Racing prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro Largo to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Defensor Sporting to win.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Cerro Largo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro Largo 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Cerro Largo1

Defensor Sporting1

Winner

12 69%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Cerro Largo1

Defensor Sporting1

Winner

12 69%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

137%

X31%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	36%	64%	62%	38%	72%	28%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	36%	64%	62%	38%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	72%	28%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	69%	31%	90%	10%	97%	3%
	37%	63%	73%	27%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	69%	31%
	37%	63%	73%	27%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	90%	10%	97%	3%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

126%

X49%

224%

1st Score

145%

X12%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

23%

1-1

20%

2-2

16%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

14.3%

1-0

12.5%

0-0

12.1%

0-1

11.1%

2-1

8.1%

1-2

7.0%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

5.5%

2-2

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Defensor Sporting – Racing prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).